I suck at mathematics
I'm currently reading this interesting book, the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.
[Credits: Alfred Lim who made the recommendation, Joyce Leow who bought me the book]
The book is about this fifteen year old kid, remarkably gifted at mathematics but has got severe issues with people.. In summary, a dog got murdered and this kid wants to know why.. (I haven't quite worked out the night-time part yet, though I'm nearing the end of the book already...)
Anyway, I'm sure you guys are more interested in finding out why I suck at maths, ain't I right? To quote a certain tutor in my uni days, with friends like you, who need enemies? Well, just to satisfy your need to feel superior, I suck at many things, among which is my poor judgement in making friends.. =P
Anyway, the book mentions what the author refers to as The Monty Hall Problem, which I have actually came across as a tutorial question years back. My sadist version goes like this:
You are in a scenario where there are 3 closed doors in front of you; only one of the doors lead to treasure(a ton of cigarettes, hot chicks, whatever...) but the other two will release an enormous rock which will smash you to bits, haha.. Suddenly, this joker appears and asks you to choose a door. Reluctantly, you choose one but instead of opening it, the fella opens one of the other doors which instantly drops a boulder, killing him immediately.. Wiping his blood and guts off your face, you now must decide whether to remain with your first choice or switch to the other remaining closed door. What should you do?
According to the theory, you should always change doors as in doing so, your probability of getting the treasure will be 2/3. Of course, you can also think that now that there are but 2 doors left, your chances must be 50-50!
So, what do you think?
Using maths, you can indeed prove that by switching doors, your chances are getting the treasure is 2/3 and not 1/2.. While I managed to work out the maths part, I never really understood why until reading the book illustration.. To put it across to you simply, the idea is that there are 2 wrong doors out of 3, so the chances of you choosing the wrong option is 2/3. Thus if you have chosen a wrong door initially, switching later will get you the treasure. Hence by switching, your chances of getting the treasure is actually 2/3. In contrast, if you choose to stay with your initial door, in order for you to avoid getting killed, you must have chosen the correct door in the first place, which brings you probability to 1/3..
But as my friend JA will say, it's all bullsh*t, it all depends on luck!
I'm currently reading this interesting book, the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.
[Credits: Alfred Lim who made the recommendation, Joyce Leow who bought me the book]
The book is about this fifteen year old kid, remarkably gifted at mathematics but has got severe issues with people.. In summary, a dog got murdered and this kid wants to know why.. (I haven't quite worked out the night-time part yet, though I'm nearing the end of the book already...)
Anyway, I'm sure you guys are more interested in finding out why I suck at maths, ain't I right? To quote a certain tutor in my uni days, with friends like you, who need enemies? Well, just to satisfy your need to feel superior, I suck at many things, among which is my poor judgement in making friends.. =P
Anyway, the book mentions what the author refers to as The Monty Hall Problem, which I have actually came across as a tutorial question years back. My sadist version goes like this:
You are in a scenario where there are 3 closed doors in front of you; only one of the doors lead to treasure(a ton of cigarettes, hot chicks, whatever...) but the other two will release an enormous rock which will smash you to bits, haha.. Suddenly, this joker appears and asks you to choose a door. Reluctantly, you choose one but instead of opening it, the fella opens one of the other doors which instantly drops a boulder, killing him immediately.. Wiping his blood and guts off your face, you now must decide whether to remain with your first choice or switch to the other remaining closed door. What should you do?
According to the theory, you should always change doors as in doing so, your probability of getting the treasure will be 2/3. Of course, you can also think that now that there are but 2 doors left, your chances must be 50-50!
So, what do you think?
Using maths, you can indeed prove that by switching doors, your chances are getting the treasure is 2/3 and not 1/2.. While I managed to work out the maths part, I never really understood why until reading the book illustration.. To put it across to you simply, the idea is that there are 2 wrong doors out of 3, so the chances of you choosing the wrong option is 2/3. Thus if you have chosen a wrong door initially, switching later will get you the treasure. Hence by switching, your chances of getting the treasure is actually 2/3. In contrast, if you choose to stay with your initial door, in order for you to avoid getting killed, you must have chosen the correct door in the first place, which brings you probability to 1/3..
But as my friend JA will say, it's all bullsh*t, it all depends on luck!
posted by @lvin at
10:39 PM
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